What role do randomness and luck play in the outcome of predictions?
Before going into football betting complexities, punters need to understand the role of two important factors that affect the outcome of the predictions. They are luck or chance and randomness. Luck can be either good or bad. Punters have no control over it. It is commonly seen that when a bet becomes a success, the punter’s skills regarding the top bets today are praised but in case of a loss, it is attributed to bad luck. However, it would be wrong to say that only skills help win bets, especially if appropriate staking methods are not used. Ideally, a healthy combination of skills and luck would work best for the punter.
As a sport, soccer is extremely susceptible to randomness affecting the outcome of matches, tournaments and even seasons. This sport is low scoring and so unpredictable that a win or a loss depends on the movement of a ball. It is important to understand that irrespective of some bettors being more effective at predicting outcomes than others, what happens on the soccer field is mostly a matter of luck. Even with the availability of football bet analysis, expert and professional predictions, accurate statistics etc., soccer betting is inherently an uncertain business.
The whole concept of soccer betting depends on making a successful prediction. With the unpredictability of the game, this might seem challenging, but it is not impossible. Punters should also remember that even bookmakers set the odds by predicting an outcome. If bookies can make accurate predictions, so can the punters.
What should punters focus on while making predictions?
Punters should firstly understand that trying to predict everything that is likely to happen on the soccer field, is foolishness. Some punters would be good at predicting the end result, some the number of goals to be scored and yet others the highest goal scorer, the half-time result etc. To be effective, punters should focus on one aspect of the game. This will enable them to achieve better results in football betting.
A punter needs to remember that bookmakers have numerous resources that help them to manage different event odds in a given market. Competing with them for all events is just a waste of time. However, if the punter targets just one event, it will help to level the playing field.
Practically, the more granular a punter is with choosing a betting event, the better it will be for him. Additionally, the more crowded the betting market is, the lesser are the chances of a punter winning. In a crowded market, bets placed provide bookies with information that helps them to sharpen their odds further. It is better to choose a niche market and access information and analysis to make accurate predictions.
What role do past betting figures play in ensuring a successful betting future?
A complimentary connection exists between the past and the future in soccer betting. The bets are placed on a future outcome but the results of the past help determine the prediction for a future event. The importance of historical data analysis for making accurate predictions is well known. Some fields like the form of the teams, instances of head-to-head collisions, team’s performance against the spread etc., are examples of the data that is required to make a good prediction for football betting, especially a sure bet.
Thus, historical data is extremely important for making football predictions and earning profits. Some common metrics used in soccer betting predictions are:
- Expected goals or xG method: This retrospective measure is commonly used in soccer betting now. Herein the result is not judged based on the goals scored rather xG measures chance quality thereby helping people to get a clearer picture of the happenings on the field.
- Poisson Distribution method: This uses some maths along with the past performance data to accurately calculate an outcome probability.
Why do punters need to compare predictions with odds?
It is not necessary for a prediction to be correct. It should just have better accuracy than the predictive analysis of the bookies and the other market operating factors. Punters should also remember that in soccer betting losing is a part of winning provided they win more than they lose.
Once punters have a method in place to make the required predictions, the probability of the predictions are calculated and compared with the bookmaker odds. In instances of inefficiencies wherein a punter’s estimated probabilities are higher than that of the bookmaker, they are referred to as the “edge.” Punters have to stake amounts based on the “edge.”
One way to understand the effectiveness of the predictions made by punters is to measure their ROI. However, punters should remember that if bets placed by them have value then over time profits will follow.
Can a punter trust predictions made by other punters?
We, at equaliserfootball.com, always advice punters against this. Still there are times when a punter sees another punter winning consistently tends to copy the predictions of the winning punter. The rise in the popularity of punters associating with multiple tipsters clearly shows that punters willingly value predictions made by other people rather than placing their trust in one tipster.
However, punters need to remember that several bettors use tipster services. Thus, predictions, like soccer picks today, hold less value by virtue of the number of people using it. There is also an element of trust involved here.
Additionally, even if a punter associates with us at equaliserfootball.com and uses our services, we still advise him to corroborate his own predictions using ours rather than depending on us completely.
How can a punter set personal aims and measure success?
Football betting predictions are difficult to make. This fact should never be underestimated. Steps can be taken to ensure accuracy but profitability of the predictions is a different matter altogether. To make predictions profitable, they need to be measured against the success or failure achieved and adapted along the way. Maintaining consistency in this is the only way predictions would beget success. However, even before making predictions punters need to be clear about what they want to predict and how they plan to go about it.
The best way to increase the accuracy of the predictions is to build a betting model based on the data available. Predictions made, need to be tested for their profitability using this model. We, at equaliserfootball.com, also follow the same theory. However, we keep refining the model constantly, maintain it with regular frequency and test it to ensure the long-term profitability and success for punters using our predictions.
